Cases Are Rising Again as COVID Enters Fourth Summer Wave

Cases are rising

Nationally, we’re seeing more indicators of increasing COVID infection, such as rises in the number of reported cases and the percentage of PCR tests that come back positive. We’re also seeing more outbreaks in aged care.

However, the extent to which this is a wave varies markedly around the nation.

Which variants are circulating?

Spread of the COVID variant XEC seems to be causing the recent rise in cases. Estimates suggest XEC has risen from 10% to 60% of circulating SARS-CoV-2 in the past two months.

XEC is a recombinant variant, meaning it’s a hybrid of two existing variants. In this case, it’s derived from two distinct descendants (KP.3.3 and KS.1.1) of the JN.1 variant that spread worldwide last Christmas.

Recent preliminary laboratory evidence suggests XEC is better at evading our antibody responses than the KP.3 variants that predominated until recently.

Will we get waves every 6 months from now on?

This leads us to back to how often we should expect COVID waves in the future.

Australia entered its Omicron period from 2022, and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to circulate to this day. In 2022 we had four waves (except for WA, which avoided the first one), in 2023 we had two waves and in 2024 at least in jurisdictions such as Victoria, there have been two clear waves.

How about Christmas 2024?

Australia-wide we can expect a moderate level of COVID circulation over the holiday period.

How do I protect myself and others?

Although cases are expected to be lower this Christmas than in recent years, you can still protect yourself and others.

For instance, if you’re catching up with elderly relatives or people with weak immune systems, be cautious if you have respiratory symptoms. Good quality masks and using RAT tests are still an option. And regardless of your symptoms, gathering in a well-ventilated room (or outside) will reduce your chance of infection and infecting others.

Conclusion

As the holiday season approaches, it is essential to be aware of the rising COVID cases and take necessary precautions to protect ourselves and others. By understanding the current situation and taking simple steps, we can minimize the impact of the virus and enjoy a safe and healthy holiday season.

FAQs

* Will we see a wave every six months from now on? The answer is not clear, as it depends on various factors such as the inherent transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal changes in transmission.
* How can I protect myself and others? You can take simple precautions such as wearing good quality masks, using RAT tests, and gathering in well-ventilated areas.
* What about the COVID variant XEC? It seems to be causing the recent rise in cases, but it is not as contagious as the JN.1 variant that spread worldwide last Christmas.
* How can I get an updated COVID booster? You can check with your healthcare provider or the official government website to see if you are eligible for an updated COVID booster.