Trying to Predict Workout 24.3? Look Back at CrossFit Open Programming History

Will workout 24.3 include thrusters, muscle-ups, and/or pull-ups?

Last updated on March thirteenth, 2024

With one week left within the 2024 CrossFit Open, the probabilities of what the ultimate workout(s) could appear to be start narrowing.

• The protected money is expecting thrusters. They have been programmed in every CrossFit Open.

Could we predict Open Workout 24.3 by looking back at past thruster workouts programmed by CrossFit and from other major competitions?

With snatches, burpees, deadlifts, rowing, and double-unders already within the rearview in 2024, what other workouts could Dave Castro drop in week three?

Open Repeats: A repeat workout is sort of as common as thrusters, with 2022 being the one 12 months after the inaugural CrossFit Open that there wasn’t a repeat workout.

• 21.3 — The front runner for a repeat is 21.3; a 15-minute chipper with front squats, thrusters, toes-to-bar, chest-to-bar pull-ups, and bar muscle-ups.
• So far in 2024there hasn’t been any gymnastics pulling, which 21.3 solves with toes-to-bar, chest-to-bar pull-ups, and bar muscle-ups.
  • It follows programming trends for the Openwhere no less than one muscle-up variation (bar or ring) has been programmed yearly.
  • Toes-to-bar have been in all Opens except one.
  • Chest-to-bar pull-ups have only missed two Opens.

A repeat of 21.3 rounds out the variety of movements within the 2024 Open. In the three-week Open era, there have been between 10-12 movements programmed every year. If 21.3 is a repeat, it might bring 2024 to 10 movements.

• Finally, 2021 was the primary post-COVID Open, and a repeat from 2021 would highlight how far the CrossFit community has come since gyms were closed around the globe for prolonged periods.

The remainder of repeat options from past CrossFit Opens all fall into classic thrusters and chest-to-bar couplets. The options are 19.5, 18.5/12.5/11.6, and 13.5.

• 19.5 is 20 minutes. With a 15-minute and a 20-minute workout already done within the 2024 Open, it seems unlikely to incorporate one other 20-minute time cap workout.
• 18.5/12.5/11.6 is the one workout that has been repeated thrice. It could be a surprise to see it repeated a fourth time.
• 13.5 is the probably to be repeated out of this group. It “rewards” athletes with more time and more work in the event that they complete three rounds of 15 chest-to-bars and 15 thrusters every 4 minutes. This programming structure creates the separation between one of the best on the earth and on a regular basis CrossFitters.

The downside to one among these couplets is leaving the 2024 CrossFit Open with only seven movements. However, because the 25 percent of athletes worldwide from the Open are eligible to compete within the 2024 Quarterfinals, this won’t be the deterrent it was in past years.

Games and Semifinals: Looking at past thruster events deeper into the season, many events pair thrusters with rope climbs or an Echo bike. This makes them unlikely to be within the Open.

There are still just a few interesting options for global community:

• Friendly Fran was first programmed on the 2020 CrossFit Games and the net Semifinals in 2021. It is three rounds of 21 thrusters and 21 chest-to-bars at 115-/85- kilos for time.
  • Since it’s been 3.5 years since Friendly Fran debuted, perhaps it’s selection for the final CrossFit population to do a former CrossFit Games event. The competition records for Friendly Fran are held by Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr (3:40) and Mat Fraser (3:08).
• Event Four from the 2021 CrossFit Gameswon by Mallory O’Brien (13:41.22) and Scott Panchik (13:39.61), was 10-to-1 reps of wall walks and thrusters. The original weight of 185/125 kilos would want to drop for the final population but would bring a brand new twist to the thruster couplets within the Open.
• The 2022 Last Chance Qualifier (LCQ) Event One could offer a fresh tackle thruster events. Event One of the 2022 LCQ tasked athletes to finish 20 thrusters, then max bar muscle-ups in a two-minute window, rest for 2 minutes, then perform the other: 20 bar muscle-ups and max-rep thrusters.
  • This event in its current form might be too advanced for the masses, though scaling could create an interesting finale for the 2024 Open. As an added wrinkle, Arielle Loewen won this event and can compete within the 24.3 Open announcement.

The limitation for all three of those events is that they are couplets in an Open short on movements. Event Four has the additional strike of stopping any pull-ups within the 2024 Open programming.

From the Sanctional Era: The 2020 Norwegian CrossFit Championship and has an analogous structure to 21.3.

• Athletes complete two rounds of 21 thrusters and pull-upsfollowed by two rounds of 15 thrusters and chest-to-bar pull-ups, and conclude with two rounds of nine thrusters and bar muscle-ups.

This event increases in difficulty as athletes progress, which might help differentiate athletes ahead of the Quarterfinals. It brings a pleasant array of gymnastics movements which were absent from the 2024 Open.

The bottom line: Fortunately for all of us within the Open, we only must wait until Thursday at noon PT before the ultimate workout (or two) of the 2024 Open is upon us.