Over a decade ago, a United Nations report described the Gaza Strip as virtually unlivableadding that it might require “Herculean efforts” to alter that.
Today, after six months of bombardment, mass displacement and siege by Israel, the duty of rebuilding Gaza seems practically unimaginable.
I’m a scholar and a systems engineer who, as research director of the Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems at Georgia Techlooks on the intersection of public health and education, with a deal with optimizing systems for effective and equitable access to essential services.
I do know that in the most effective of times, designing complex systems that involve people, communities, technologies and limited resources – often with conflicting priorities and impacting multiple segments of society – is a particularly complex challenge. Doing so within the midst of a geopolitical conflict makes the issue seem infeasible.
But what we’re coping with now in Gaza is on a special scale altogether. The enclave is facing cascading crises – a condition by which multiple interrelated crises occur sequentially or concurrently, each triggering or exacerbating the subsequent. And as hard because it is to look beyond the every day horrors of warfare in Gaza, there will likely be a time when the world starts to show to recovery and reconstruction. The concern is that the cascading crises will make this process that much harder and furthermore amplify the human costs of this conflict for years to return.
Beyond the death toll
As the 2012 U.N. report questioning Gaza’s “livability” alludes to, the occupied enclave has long faced severe problems referring to providing for the people living in what’s one of the crucial densely populated areas on the planet. My mother, who lives within the West Bank, often visited Gaza in her capability as a member of the Palestinian National Council and the General Secretariat of the General Union of Palestinian Women. She would share tales of its wealthy culture but in addition of noticeable issues just like the persistent sewage smell and unemployment exceeding 45%.
Of course, after months of Israeli bombardment following the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, the immediate concern is for people’s lives. Already, the conflict has killed greater than 33,000 people in Gazain keeping with health authorities in Gaza.
But devastation brought on by armed conflicts extends beyond immediate casualties. Causal pathways – that’s, chains of events through which the long-term consequences will likely be felt – mean the present conflict will almost actually result in lasting societal and health crises. And these, research has showncan overshadow the destruction that results from an lively conflict each in scope and in severity.
Analysis of 13 recent armed conflicts by the Geneva Declaration Secretariat, a U.N.-backed initiative, found that indirect deaths exceeded direct deaths in 12 of them.
The report places a conservative estimate that for every one directly killed by war, 4 more are killed by its indirect consequences – things equivalent to waterborne diseases as a consequence of the dearth of secure, clean water and destruction of water sanitation facilities, or deaths as a consequence of birth complications due to health services being disrupted.
Given the dimensions and scope of destruction of six months of bombing, the consequential impact of war in Gaza could also be even worse. And whereas there is often a lag before these effects are felt, in Gaza they’re already occurring. Economic collapse, infrastructure destruction, environmental damage and displacement have created a multidimensional crisis.
Compromised systems
To understand the challenge of overcoming cascading crises in Gaza, it’s price taking a snapshot on the impact of the monthslong conflict.
The war has devastated the enclave’s economy. The U.N estimated in mid-February that nearly half of all cropland had been damaged and that some 70% of Gaza’s fishing fleet had reportedly been destroyed.
In the primary few months of bombing, nearly 70% of Gaza’s 439,000 homes and about half of all buildings – including industrial outlets – were damaged or destroyed.
Meanwhile, the destruction of Gaza’s health infrastructure has led to about three-quarters of hospitals and two-thirds of primary health care clinics shutting downleaving only 10 out of 36 hospitals barely functioning – amputations are carried out without anesthesiaand miscarriages have increased by 300%.
AP Photo/Ismael Abu Dayyah
This health crisis has been worsened by a lack of unpolluted water and essential medical supplies. It has contributed to soaring rates of infectious diseases, acute respiratory infections, severe dehydration and diarrhea.
Hospitals and clinics struggle to operate without electricity, and lots of health care staff have been injured or killedwhich drastically affects the capability of the health care system. And many schools and universities have been destroyedmaking education inaccessible. When the war does end, Palestinians in Gaza will emerge from conflict with their education, health, housing and economic systems all deeply compromised.
The cost of rebuilding
These aspects are all interconnected. In other words, they worsen each other and create a cascading effect of negative outcomes for Palestinians in Gaza. Take, for instance, the problem of mass displacement, with 1.7 million people forced from homes which have been largely destroyed: This impacts people’s ability to make a living, resulting in increased poverty and the next risk of malnutrition.
The conflict’s aftermath necessitates rebuilding multiple facets of society, including social structures, health, infrastructure and education – all of which have been disrupted in profound ways.
Take education as one other example: The disruption of education for kids not only affects individual learning and development but in addition has long-term implications for the general well-being of the community. The trauma of war means many children will face severe challenges even when the bombs stop. This education loss will impair employment opportunities, which in turn has an effect on the general economy.
Addressing it will require an integrated approach that not only focuses on the physical rebuilding of faculties but in addition considers the standard of education and psychological and social support for kids. The U.N. projects that 1 million children – almost each child in Gaza – will need mental health and psychosocial support. Meanwhile, the reconstruction of Gaza’s public health systems would require solutions that are usually not nearly addressing immediate medical needs, but that also consider the broader infrastructure – including mental health services and vaccination programs, in addition to the availability of essential medications.
Rebuilding cities facing cascading crises the character of which Gaza is confronted with is a frightening prospect. And while the duty could seem insurmountable at the moment, with cooperation, coordination and courage it is just not unachievable.
But it’s a challenge that becomes that rather more difficult with every day that the war in Gaza goes on.