Heat waves might be deadly for older adults: An aging global population and rising temperatures mean hundreds of thousands are at risk

A deadly heat wave gripped large regions of Asia for weeks in April and May 2024. As temperatures climbed past 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius) in India on May 7, campaigning politicians, local news announcers and voters waiting in long lines passed out from the oppressive heat.

From as far north as Japan to as far south because the Philippines, the relentless heat wreaked havoc on on a regular basis life. Students and teachers in Cambodia were sent home from school, as their hand-held fans provided little protection against the stifling heat and humidity of their poorly ventilated classrooms. Farmers in Thailand saw their crops wither and mourned the lack of livestock that perished under the punishing sun. Hundreds of individuals died from the warmth.

Most of the planet has suffered the dire effects of utmost heat lately.

A weekslong heat wave within the southwestern United States in 2023 was described as “hell on earth” in Phoenix, where temperatures hit 110 F (43.3 C) or higher for 31 straight days. At the identical time, Europe saw unprecedented high temperatures that killed tons of and contributed to devastating wildfires in Greece.

Regardless of where or when a heat wave strikes, one pattern is a continuing: Older adults are the most certainly to die from extreme heat, and this crisis will worsen in the approaching years.

We study climate change and population aging. Our research documents two global trends that together portend a dire future.

More older adults might be vulnerable to heat stress

First, temperatures are hotter than ever. The nine-year period from 2015 and 2023 had the best average temperatures since global records began in 1880.

Second, the population is aging worldwide. By 2050, the number of individuals ages 60 and older will double to nearly 2.1 billionmaking up 21% of the worldwide population. That proportion is 13% today.

These combined forces mean that ever-rising numbers of vulnerable older adults might be exposed to intensifying heat.

To understand the risks ahead, we developed population projections for various age groups and combined them with climate change scenarios for the approaching many years. Our analyses show that by 2050, greater than 23% of the world population ages 69 and older might be living in regions where peak temperatures routinely surpass 99.5°F (37.5°C), compared with just 14% today.

That signifies that as many as 250 million additional older adults might be exposed to dangerously high temperatures.

Mapping the info shows that the majority of those older adults live in lower- and middle-income countries with insufficient services and limited access to electricity, cooling appliances and protected water.

In historically cooler regions within the Global North, including North America and Europe, rising temperatures might be the primary force driving older adults’ heat exposure. In historically hotter regions within the Global South equivalent to Asia, Africa and South America, population growth and increases in longevity mean that steeply rising numbers of older adults might be exposed to intensifying heat-related risks.

Policymakers, communities, families and older residents themselves need to know these risks and be prepared due to older adults’ special vulnerabilities to heat.

Extreme heat is very harmful to older adults

High temperatures are oppressive for everybody, but for older adults they might be deadly.

Extreme heat worsens common age-related health conditions equivalent to heart, lung and kidney disease and might cause delirium. Older people don’t sweat as much as younger people, which makes it harder for his or her bodies to chill down when temperatures spike. These problems are intensified by common prescription medicationsequivalent to anticholinergics, which further reduce the capability to sweat.

Spending time outdoors in hot humid weather may cause dehydration, an issue worsened by the uncomfortable side effects of prescription medications equivalent to diuretics and beta-blockers. Dehydration could make older adults weak and dizzy, increasing their risk of falls and injury. These threats are even worse in regions lacking access to protected and reasonably priced drinking water.

Poor air quality makes it difficult to breath, especially for many who have already got lung problems equivalent to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD.

For older adults with physical health problems, temperatures as low as 80 F (26.7 C) can pose significant danger. And when humidity is as high as 90%, even 78 F (25.6 C) might be hazardous to older adults.

Nighttime heat is very harmful for older adults whose homes lack air con or who can’t afford to run their air conditioners for long periods. The ideal temperature for older adults’ restful sleep is between 68 and 77 F (20 and 25 C)and sleep quality diminishes as temperatures rise. An evening of restless sleep could make an older adult more depressed and confused during their waking hours. Medications can also lose their effectiveness if stored in places much warmer than 77 F (25 C).

Older adults also may suffer emotionally during stifling heat waves

Being stuck indoors when temperatures are unbearable could make older adults bored, depressed and isolated. People with cognitive impairments may underestimate the risks of utmost heat or may not understand the warmth advisories.

Those who’ve physical mobility limitations or lack access to transportation can’t easily travel to public cooling centers – if there’s one nearby – or find relief in nearby “green and blue areas,” equivalent to parks and lakes.

These threats are especially dire in low- and middle-income nationswhere older adults usually tend to live in substandard housing and lack access to high-quality health care or ways to chill down in the warmth. We discuss this as “systemic cooling poverty.”

What might be done?

Policymakers can work to chop greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels in vehicles, power plants and factories, which drive global warming, and develop effective plans to guard older people from heat risk. Older adults and their caregivers can also take steps to adapt.

But efforts to assist should be tailored to every region and population.

Wealthy municipalities can increase public investments in early warning systems and ride services to cooling centers and hospitals. They can use geographic information systems to discover neighborhoods with high concentrations of older adults and expand power grids to administer increasing demand for air con.

In regions with substandard housing, limited access to wash water and few public supports equivalent to cooling centers, much larger changes are obligatory. Providing higher health care, water and housing and reducing air pollution that may mitigate health problems during heat waves require significant changes and investments many countries struggle to afford.

The World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization warn that this decade might be critical for preparing communities to handle rising heat and the chance to aging populations. Across all regions, researchers, practitioners and policymakers could save lives by heeding their call.