Can we cut road deaths to zero by 2050? Current trends say no. What’s going incorrect?

Last 12 months, 1,266 Australians died from road accidents involving no less than one automobile and a driver, passenger, pedestrian or cyclist. The economic cost of Australian road trauma exceeds A$27 billion every year. That’s 1.8% of Australia’s GDP.

Australia has committed to an ambitious goal of zero road deaths by 2050, referred to as Vision Zero. Originating in Sweden within the late Nineties, Vision Zero is predicated on a straightforward principle: no lack of life or serious injury on roads is suitable.

But while we were making good progress at reducing road trauma, this has stalled in recent times, with Australian road deaths rising to levels not seen in nearly a decade.

If the present trend continues, meeting the Vision Zero goal by 2050 appears unattainable. So what’s going incorrect?

Progress and setbacks

The journey towards reducing road trauma has had each progress and setbacks. In the early Nineties, roads were claiming greater than 2,000 lives in Australia every year.

Over the years, we managed to significantly reduce this number. By 2020, the annual road toll had dropped to around 1,097, almost halving the figure from three many years prior.

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However, recently, we’ve witnessed a worrying reversal: three consecutive years of accelerating road deaths.

With more progress, it gets harder to enhance

Over the years, through various safety initiatives and public awareness campaigns, we managed to significantly reduce road trauma. This includes measures comparable to seatbelt, helmet and child-seat laws, in addition to regulations around speeding, drink-driving and phone use.

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We even have safer cars and infrastructure now. Modern automobile features and technologies – comparable to auto-emergency braking, lane-keep assist, blind spot monitoring and airbags – are related to a lower risk of road accidents and fatalities.

With the numerous advantages we now have gained from these measures, additional safety measures will naturally result in smaller improvements. But the toll is definitely worsening.

What role did the pandemic play?

For the primary time in many years, we’ve seen a sustained increase in road deaths in Australia and other countries comparable to the United States.

During the pandemic, more people bought carsperhaps to avoid public transport.

However, this alone doesn’t fully explain the rise in road deaths. With more people working from home, there was a discount in each day commutes. Plus, the rise in the variety of vehicles has been modest relative to the rise in road deaths.

So the belief that more individuals are dying because there are more cars is, at best, a partial explanation.

Risky driving behaviours

The post-pandemic data shows several indicators of declining road user behaviour and attitudes.

In New South Wales, for instance, there was a considerable increase in fines for minor speeding offences.

Across Australia, the variety of fatal crashes in 60–70 km/h zones has been rising, from 241 associated deaths in 2020 to 315 in 2022. Speeding is more likely to play a task, but it surely’s unclear to what extent.

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Remote and regional roads still pose a significantly higher risk of death, relative to their population. The road death risk is about six times higher in outer regional areas and nine times higher in distant areas in comparison with major cities.

This might be because of various aspects: speeding, risk-taking behaviours and others comparable to poorer infrastructure, lower levels of enforcement, collisions with wildlife, long-trips and driver fatigue.

Deadly crashes involving drivers without valid licences have also risen. In 2019, 96 deaths were reported in crashes involving operators with no valid licence. This rose to 116 in 2020 and 128 in 2021.

The variety of road deaths involving a cyclist or motorcyclist not wearing a helmet was 19 in 2019, but it surely jumped to twenty-eight in 2020 and 2021, a 47% increase.

The proportion of road deaths with drugs detected within the operator’s system has been risingfrom 14% for drivers and 11% for motorcyclists in 2015. In 2021, these numbers rose to 17% for drivers and 28% for motorcyclists.

Another worrying trend is the increased risk of road death for the 17–25 age group. This age group is now at the best risk of fatality on our roads, surpassing the over-75 age group.

Improving road safety

For the foreseeable future, human drivers will proceed to be the first operators of vehicles, and human aspects remain the most important contributor to road trauma.

When it involves saving lives on the roads, we’d like to watch attitudes to road safety. One way is thru regular surveys at state and national levels, tracking scores of behavioural indicators over time. Much like political parties using ongoing polls to trace the political climate, regular tracking of the community road safety climate allows us to proactively address challenges emerging from user behaviour, moderately than waiting for alarming statistics.

Australia has a few of the most progressive road safety policies globally. But our ambitious targets demands focusing more on user behaviour. Road safety campaigns, delivered via TV and other media, can influence road safety behaviourswith tailored campaigns targeting the precise demographics and behaviours of concern. Intensifying investment in these campaigns might be a key strategy in achieving our road safety goals.