In the six-year history of the Rogue Invitational, only two women have stood atop the podium: Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr and Laura Horvath.
As we look ahead to the competition’s inaugural outing in Aberdeen, Scotland, nothing makes us think that a third name will be added to this list in 2024. Here’s who we’re picking to win it all.
Picking the Winner
We don’t know much about the 2024 Rogue Invitational workouts at this point, but Rogue recently shared a post with a horizontal pegboard traverse, hinting at what could be in store for the athletes.
If the horizontal pegboard event comes to pass, expect Horvath to have an advantage due to her rock climbing background.
In three out of four previous in-person Rogue Invitationals, Event 1 has been a mid-length run with a vest.
- Toomey-Orr has won two of these three events, with the third programmed in 2022 when she did not compete.
If history repeats itself this year, expect Tia to be in the mix for the event win again.
Rogue has also highlighted Scotland’s history of lifting stones, the most famous of which are the Dinnie Stones, located 24 miles/38.5 km from Aberdeen.
With Rogue’s history of incorporating strongman lifts and equipment into its CrossFit competition, we expect the Saturday night strength event will involve lifting stones. And based on her height advantage, we’ll give the nod to Horvath here.
- Mark Your Calendars: The 2024 Rogue Invitational takes place November 8-10 in Aberdeen, Scotland.
In the little details we have, Horvath has a 2-1 event edge, but it’s too thin on details to determine the overall winner.
Looking back at the Semifinals, Horvath and Toomey-Orr both won their respective competitions, the French Throwdown and Syndicate Crown. In a head-to-head event comparison from the Semifinals, Toomey-Orr has the advantage 3-2.
- Note: Event 1 was excluded due to the different running courses.
At a high level, it seems close. When you dive into the details, though, an important pattern emerges.
- In two Semifinal events where Horvath had the better time, it was by two seconds (Event 2) and 17 seconds (Event 4). In the three events Toomey-Orr did better, it was by 49 seconds (Event 3), four seconds (Event 5), and seven seconds (Event 6).
To win the Rogue Invitational, Horvath or Toomey-Orr need to win an event or two by a significant margin over the other to have a decent number of athletes finish between them.
- As we saw in the Semifinals Event 3, we think it’ll be Toomey-Orr, whose strengths give her the best chance to have a big lead in an event over Horvath.
That’ll give her enough points to build and hold a lead over Horvath and give her a fourth Rogue Invitational victory.
The Fight for Third
The final podium spot will likely end up being a battle between Gabriela Migala and Alex Gazan.
- In 2023, Migala placed fourth at both the CrossFit Games and the Rogue Invitational, while Alex Gazan placed fifth in both.
Migala had a career year in 2024, highlighted by a second-place finish at the CrossFit Games, her first-ever podium finish at the event.
- Migala is also the only athlete in the field besides Horvath and Toomey-Orr to finish on the podium at the Rogue Invitational before.
Gazan’s Games experience, on the other hand, didn’t go as planned, thanks in part to a 38th in the Run Swim and a 25th in Push Pull 2.0.
- Gazan finished five spots lower than last year in 10th overall.
Going into Rogue, we likely won’t see a swim event or an event with such a significant number of handstand push-ups, so expect to see Gazan towards the top of the leaderboard in Scotland.
In the end, we think it’ll be Migala on the podium along with Toomey-Orr and Horvath, given the successful season she has had thus far in 2024.
Our 2024 Rogue Invitational Podium Picks
- Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr
- Laura Horvath
- Gabriela Migala
Dark Horses
Emma Tall
Injuries and bad luck have prevented Emma Tall from becoming a household name in CrossFit.
- At the Semifinals in May, she finished third, behind only Horvath and Migala. The Rogue Invitational should allow Tall to showcase her talents on the world stage again.
At the 2023 CrossFit Games, Tall won the Alpaca Redux event. The three women who finished directly behind her in that event would all go on to finish in the top five at the 2023 Rogue Invitational.
Maddie Sturt
The athletes who excel at the Rogue Invitational are able to move heavier weights over time.
- Coming off of her career-best eighth-place finish at the 2024 CrossFit Games, Maddie Sturt fits that bill.
In the final events at the 2024 Games, which had thrusters and a yoke carry, Sturt finished 5th in the 2421 Final and 4th in the 1815 Final.
- Among the Rogue competitors, Toomey-Orr was the only athlete to finish ahead of Sturt in both events.
Let’s look back at the Semifinals this year. In Event 2, which included 50 155-pound front squats, Sturt’s winning time from Torian Pro was the fifth-best worldwide. The only Rogue Invitational athletes to beat her were Toomey Orr, Horvath, and Migala.
Final Thoughts
CrossFit fans can only hope for a women’s competition as exciting as the one we saw in 2023.
While Toomey-Orr did reclaim her Fittest on Earth title in 2024, she has yet to beat Horvath in a head-to-head matchup since her return to competition.
